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The Death of a Moderate: How O'Donnell wonThe HotlineSept
ember 15, 2010 10:37 AMBy James A. BarnesHow did Christin
e O'Donnell go from being a weak third place finisher in
the '06 Delaware Republican Senate primary to slaying the
party's top vote getter, Rep. Mike Castle, and becoming
the GOP 2010 Senate nominee today? An analysis of the ret
urns from the state's 41 election districts shows that O'
Donnell did it by winning working class towns and suburbs
, the fastest growing parts of the state, and Delaware's
reliably conservative turf in Kent and Sussex Counties. C
astle did well in Wilmington and the old-line GOP suburbs
outside of Wilmington as well as in Newark, home to the
University of Delaware. But these areas that were once th
e base for moderate Republicans on the East Coast, like C
astle, had a relatively lower turnout in the primary comp
ared their percentage of registered Republicans in the st
ate.Castle won Wilmington handily, 76% to 24% over O'Donn
ell, but outside of District 4, where Castle lives the GO
P vote in Wilmington is insignificant and last night it c
omprised only 3.7% of the statewide GOP primary turnout.
In the traditionally Republican suburbs outside of Wilmin
gton known as the Brandywine Hundred, Castle also rolled
up a healthy 63% majority. But those election districts -
- 6, 7, 10 and 11 -- only made up 12.4% of the primary vo
te. At the same time, those four districts contain 14.8%
of the state's registered Republicans. (Delaware is a clo
sed primary state, independents who have contributed migh
tily to Castle's success in general elections in the stat
e cannot vote in party tprimaries.) In Greenville, anothe
r wealthy suburb, Castle rolled up a huge 73% win. Overal
l, Castle captured Newark, which hugs the state's border
with Maryland, with 62% of the vote. But in Newark's work
ing class district, O'Donnell won with 55% of the vote.Ca
stle also comfortably carried the middle class Wilmington
suburbs in the Pike Creek corridor portion the state, 60
% to 40%, but in the close-in working class towns of Elsm
ere and Newport, O'Donnell battled Castle to a draw winni
ng Newport with 51% while losing Elsmere with 49%. To the
south, in New Castle and Christiana, where working class
Republicans reside, O'Donnell won again with 51 percent
of the vote. In Bear and Glasgow, which is a combination
of working class and middle class suburbs and represented
a true battleground in this primary, O'Donnell won with
57% of the vote.Further South in Middletown, Odessa, Town
send and Smyrna, the fastest growing part of the state wh
ere many of the area's Republicans are relative newcomers
to the state and thus less likely to have a long history
of voting for Castle, O'Donnell won decisively with 60%
of the vote. O'Donnell's margin here offset her loss in t
he middle class Wilmington suburbs of Pike Creek and then
some.Then in the conservative portions of the state, Ken
t and Sussex Counties, O'Donnell overwhelmed Castle. She
won Kent, minus Smyrna, with 64% of the vote. In eastern
Sussex County, which includes popular beach towns of Reho
both and Lewes, O'Donnell posted a 62% victory. And in we
stern Sussex, probably the most conservative territory in
the state, she captured a whopping 70% of the vote. Her
2,916 vote margin there almost completely negated the 2,9
27 vote advantage that Castle built up in Wilmington and
the well-off Brandywine Hundred suburbs, combined.The upp
er class suburbs like the ones around Wilmington used to
be able to provide the margin of victory for moderate Rep
ublicans in primaries. But as the GOP has moved in a more
conservative direction nationally in the last two-to-thr
ee decades, many of those moderate suburban voters have s
witched their party registration to independent or Democr
atic. And there are just not enough GOP votes left in tha
t territory to provide a safe haven for moderate Republic
ans, even an icon like Mike Castle
------Original Message
------
From: Beau Biden
To: Joe Rogalsky
Cc: Ted Kaufman

Cc: Mike Donilon
Cc: Alex Snyder-Mackler
Subject: Re: Int
erview request from Randall Chase of the Associated Press

Sent: Sep 15, 2010 11:18 AM

Done



On Sep 15, 2010, at
10:08 AM, Joe Rogalsky <joerogalsky@gmail.com> wrote:

>
Team --
>
> Randall Chase of the AP called me this mor
ning to ask to talk to Beau about the results of last nig
ht's Republican primary, specifically whether he is secon
d-guessing his decision not to run for the Senate.
>
>
I think this would be a good reporter call for Beau to re
turn because last night I spent a lot time with various
reporters and bloggers - on background - knocking down th
e rumor that Beau is "kicking himself" for not running th
is year since Castle lost, etc.
>
> In talking to those
folks, I made it clear that 1) Beau made his decision be
cause of the Bradley case, it had nothing to do with Cast
le and that 2) Beau has worked very hard for Coons, think
s Chris will make a great Senator and is going to work ha
rd over the next seven weeks to help Chris win.
>
> Whi
le it may be annoying, I think it would be good for Beau
to knock this down in an interview once and be done with
it, but am interested in what you all think.
>
> Joe



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